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and what is your father's favorite scotch? I too will be having a nip or three this evening. My "serviceable" one is Balvenie 12, but I also have a delicious glenlivet 1, a lagavulin 16, but I think the balvenie will rule the evening
Do you say happy ANZAC Day? Or is it a somber thing like 9-11?

>>Be careful leaving that tucker out, Pz, lest mikeS rides out and scoffs the lot...<<<
>>Too late - he’s already ‘baggsed it’<<<
and I have no idea what that means
 

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Anzac day is a day of remembrance:

Wikipedia definition:

”Anzac Day (/ˈænzæk/) is a national day of remembrance in Australia and New Zealand that broadly commemorates all Australians and New Zealanders "who served and died in all wars, conflicts, and peacekeeping operations" and "the contribution and suffering of all those who have served".

My father’s nip of choice - Glenfiddich 21-Year-Old Single Malt. I’ve never been a fan of whisky, and wouldn’t know the difference between a good or average whisky, but can always pick from a blind tasting the Glenfiddich. As a young boy, my dad and I would attend the Anzac Day dawn service, he would wear his service medals and my grandfather’s. After service, he would sneak out from his jacket an old-fashioned silver risky flask and have a nip each. Although his nips seem to be more like a chugalug.


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and what is your father's favorite scotch? I too will be having a nip or three this evening. My "serviceable" one is Balvenie 12, but I also have a delicious glenlivet 1, a lagavulin 16, but I think the balvenie will rule the evening
Do you say happy ANZAC Day? Or is it a somber thing like 9-11?


and I have no idea what that means
The warning not to leave tucker out (food) - too late he's baggsed it (scuffed - eaten - taken it). I seem to have a reputation on this forum that my motivation to tour on my bike is just an excuse to find new cafes and eateries.


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Discussion Starter #105
The warning not to leave tucker out (food) - too late he's baggsed it (scuffed - eaten - taken it). I seem to have a reputation on this forum that my motivation to tour on my bike is just an excuse to find new cafes and eateries.
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And...? Slim pickin's these days, mikeS!
 

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Very sad and slim pickings Los. Losing weight by the minute


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Discussion Starter #107
Back to covid19 - I had an overnight e-mail from my sister living in London that our cousin has died from this illness. He was 81 - we must have been born within a few months of each other I guess.
He was, apparently, supremely fit. It's getting closer...
 

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So very sorry to hear of your cousin's passing LoS, as you say, it's getting closer.

I went to Docs & got two flu shots on Thursday, only to come down a temp of over 39 on Friday night. I thought Uh Oh, here we go! But today, Sunday, am luckily feeling a lot better & temps almost back to normal so hopefully only the side effects of both vaccines. The pneumovax seemed to be the one that brought me down, don't normally have any side effects from the annual flu vaccine.

I have been tracking the WHO reported statistics (usually at least 24 hrs behind reality) since the beginning of April for a few countries (China, Oz, NZ, Spain, Italy, India, Iran and USA) and it does make for harrowing reading.

For the 7 day period Saturday 18APR to 25APR, China (population ~1.3 billion) reported NO new C-19 deaths and 176 new cases.

For the same 7 day period, USA (population ~328 million - about 1/4 of China), reported 15,832 deaths and almost 228,000 new cases.

Such terribly sad and unbelievably tragic times for so many...
 

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Back to covid19 - I had an overnight e-mail from my sister living in London that our cousin has died from this illness. He was 81 - we must have been born within a few months of each other I guess.
He was, apparently, supremely fit. It's getting closer...
That would shake you a bit, I’d expect, Lawrence. My condolences.
 

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Sorry for your loss Lawrence. I lost my step-mum to dementia a few weeks ago, nothing to do with C-19, but as an indirect consequence of C-19 I couldn’t attend her funeral. York for a while prohibited any mourners at all funerals, though most crematoria are allowing 4-5 mourners now. So families can’t see elderly relatives in isolation, in hospital, in care homes or even at a funeral. Some folk are going to be getting PTSD from all this undoubtedly.

Herdygerdy, the published stats are a significant understatement in so many countries, the UK being one. It’s the accepted view here that 80% contracting the virus will either be ‘asymptomatic’ or have ‘mild symptoms’ and as such in the UK they will not get to see a doctor let alone go to hospital (the Govt only want you to call a medic if you develop breathing difficulties). The UK published stats are only for those who have had a positive test and those tests have so far only been conducted for those admitted to hospital I.e. out of the 20% suffering ‘serious’ symptoms. So if the 80/20% rule is accurate, the UK has not had 150k cases as published today, but probably closer to three quarters of a million cases.

A lot depends on the testing regime and as Dr Strangelove said the extent of false positives and negatives these tests yield. Germany has tested far more widely, so their published figures are far more credible as being closer to the actual infection rate than the UK stats, but inevitably still an understatement as people who don’t feel bad are unlikely to get tested.


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Sorry for your loss Lawrence. I lost my step-mum to dementia a few weeks ago, nothing to do with C-19, but as an indirect consequence of C-19 I couldn’t attend her funeral. York for a while prohibited any mourners at all funerals, though most crematoria are allowing 4-5 mourners now. So families can’t see elderly relatives in isolation, in hospital, in care homes or even at a funeral. Some folk are going to be getting PTSD from all this undoubtedly.

Herdygerdy, the published stats are a significant understatement in so many countries, the UK being one. It’s the accepted view here that 80% contracting the virus will either be ‘asymptomatic’ or have ‘mild symptoms’ and as such in the UK they will not get to see a doctor let alone go to hospital (the Govt only want you to call a medic if you develop breathing difficulties). The UK published stats are only for those who have had a positive test and those tests have so far only been conducted for those admitted to hospital I.e. out of the 20% suffering ‘serious’ symptoms. So if the 80/20% rule is accurate, the UK has not had 150k cases as published today, but probably closer to three quarters of a million cases.

A lot depends on the testing regime and as Dr Strangelove said the extent of false positives and negatives these tests yield. Germany has tested far more widely, so their published figures are far more credible as being closer to the actual infection rate than the UK stats, but inevitably still an understatement as people who don’t feel bad are unlikely to get tested.


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The UK figures are, literally, unbelievable. Only hospital deaths are recorded whereas for instance in Ireland half the toll is in care homes. Ours is under by many thousands and may be the highest in Europe. The FT estimates 40k plus.


I’m still hoping the ferry to Spain will be open come June but it looks like we’ll be in lockdown longer than mainland Europe. Small time problems for me compared to my Windrush generation neighbour Mr Sibley who has vascular dementia. We called his 60 year old son before successfully managing to stop him walking off down the street with an armful of random possessions. He said he didn’t recognise where he was living.
 

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Sorry for your loss, LOS, but that emphasizes the scariness of this. Fit people can and do succumb.

So, now, ugh, I am 74, and have no signicant co morbities, and I run 2 miles (slowly) probably 4x a week. Yet, I am at risk...and I believe that. It annoys me, but I can intellectually accept it, if not psychologically. It kinda pisses me off, but I recognize it as an inconvenient truth.
Who can believe anything coming out of China? Or Iran?
In the US the death numbers are high probably because of the way that we report deaths. Our mortality rate is among the lowest in the world, if not the lowest.
If a patient has heart disease, diabetes, Covid, and emphysema, and they die, it is considered a covid death; the argument being that those other comorbidities were chronic conditions that did not cause the death though they contributed (heavily) to it. The presence of covid is the presumed cause of death, it tipped the scales, and is listed first on the death report. The co-morbidities are listed also, but the immediate cause of death is covid.
Other countries may report differently and, arguably, with probably valid medical reasons. In the US, a death certificate is reported and signed on everyone who dies. The location does not matter.

Tangent: There has been criticism in the US that the US is over-reporting to prolong the shutdown and scare the population into submission to government control.
This has come from both the left and the right. Most people here see that as conspiracy theory, tin foil material. Our media here have often played up the doom and gloom---and it doesn't need to be, some networks are MUCH worse than others and they also play up political turmoil---esp CNN and MSNBC. It has been my experience when traveling overseas the US news is often CNN. Many feel they are the most biased, but CNN is in all airports. Of course they all have bias, and political agendas. On the left is NBC, MSNBC, CBS, CNN, NPR, PBS, ABC; on the right is FOX. None will admit their biases, yet they are there. I am not taking sides in this; but, the point is that any reporting from just one side will leave you with only part of what's happening. And that most certainly includes reporting on the virus and our government's response to it.
Ironic that the old Chinese curse is: May You Live in Interesting Times.
 

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Dr S, I suspect the mortality rates will even out in many places, with one caveat. Using my crude maths (see previous post) that the real UK infection rate could be 750,000 so far and using the Financial Times analysis Arb01 posted of the increase in deaths from all causes in all locations in the Uk v prior years which suggested c40,000 deaths so far rather than the 20k put on hospital death certs, suggests an underlying mortality rate of c0.5%, similar to the US rate so far.

The caveat I mentioned is whether medical resources max out. That could occur either as in Italy in the early days when hospitals where overwhelmed or, if this goes on for ages, we lose medics to the virus and surviving hospital staff burn out with exhaustion, stress etc.

The politicians considering releasing lockdown need to think of giving the health workers a break before the rest of us start relishing the freedom too much. I think we need to cherish our health workers and treat it as a marathon, not a sprint to the end of lockdown.


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Sorry, late evening and two glasses of wine. Decimal place in wrong place, 5% mortality amongst those infected not 0.5% based on my fag packet calcs for the UK.


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Sorry for your loss, LOS, but that emphasizes the scariness of this. Fit people can and do succumb.
Not intending to diminish a loss, but when “fit” and “healthy” people die from this disease, I’d like to know the case history.

Doctors are finding that of those who die in the USA, the vast majority (over 90%) had co-morbidities that were the actual cause of death. As one doctor said, “The patient died of COPD, not coronavirus. He just had coronavirus when he died.” Such people can be taken out by any opportunistic infection.

Likewise, if you wait until you need to be on a ventilator to go into the hospital, your odds of survival drop dramatically. Ventilators do more harm than good, so they are used only when doctors are desperate to get O2 into the patient. How many “fit” people waited too long to go to the hospital?

I’m not talking out my butt here...my sister lost her husband a few years back to an infection in the lungs. The week before he went into the ICU, she wanted to take him to the ER, but he refused. A week later, he didn’t get a choice. He never came out. By the time it was clear to him to go to the hospital it was too late. They told her that even if he recovered, he was looking as over six months of respiratory therapy (expensive) before he could go home and try to live a normal life. When you’re young and fit, it’s easy to shrug something off and think you can pop some pain pills and walk on.

I take this seriously as I have chronic allergies. If I get head congestion I can’t knock out with OTC medications in 3 days, I have to in to the doctor because I know it’s prone to turn into a sinus infection. I’ve been this way ever since the early 90’s when I had an infection so bad, I broke down and went into the ER right before it was ready to breach my brain cavity...catching it just in time. My failing to go see a doctor after a week of suffering nearly caused me to die of a brain abscess.
 

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I suspect that It’s going to be nigh on impossible to get local let alone international standardisation in reporting of covid deaths and infection rates.

For me the simplest and most accurate method seems to be one Arb01 highlighted above in his link to an FT article, which shows deaths v historic patterns at a macro level. The hypothesis being that the rise is most likely attributable to COVID, whether directly or indirectly and avoids differences and disputes about interpretation.

I’d be genuinely interested if there was a better approach, as this approach obviously has its own limitations, but it’s strength is that it is a ‘true’ measure of the change in death rate in a Country/region during the covid period.


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In the USA, it’s been varied. Normally, a death is recorded on what is proven. If you have a heart attack, that’s the cause of death. If there were other factors, they may be recorded as well, but several places are recording a death as a COVID-19 death solely because the deceased tests positive for it. I think a similar issue was going on in Germany.
 

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>several places are recording a death as a COVID-19 death solely because the deceased tests positive for it.<<
Fortunately I have not had to fill out a death cert for many years, but I doubt they've changed the immediate cause of death and contributing factors (co-morbidities).
A person with COPD who gets covid and is symptomatic and dies, it is a covid death. Straighforward.
The death would not have occurred at that time without covid. Covid is the cause of death.
Replace "covid: with "hit by truck while using his COPD inhaler for SOB." The cause of death is hit by truck, not COPD.
If the patient were symptom free by strict definition and dies and was then, as an incidental result comes back covid +, THEN, the cause of death, ie covid vs COPD may be murky.
I agree that some standardization would be needed. I am not saying that the USA is doing it better or worse, right or wrong, than other countries (except for China and Iran), but that there may be different methods of reporting, different ways to fill out a particular country's death certificate---if one is even filled out always.
As an example look at the numbers for the Spanish Flu in 1917. Death estimates range from 60 to over 100 million dead. That's a pretty wide range.

>Doctors are finding that of those who die in the USA, the vast majority (over 90%) had co-morbidities that were the actual cause of death.<<<
Co-morbidities, by definition are "coincidental or co-existing," that's what the "co" is for. So, a Coexisting problem could not be a cause of death...if it were the cause of death it would not be "co" morbid. It would be the immediate cause of death. TBC, none of those co-morbidities play well with covid. So, even if covid is only a contributor, it will be a significant player and should be listed. Again...would the patient have died without covid? If the answer is no, not at that time, then covid is a cause of death.
Admittedly this can be non clear cut call.

>As one doctor said, “The patient died of COPD, not coronavirus. He just had coronavirus when he died.” Such people can be taken out by any opportunistic infection.<<
Maybe. Maybe not.
Such people with covid can indeed be taken out by an opportunistic infection, or by liver failure or kidney failure or stroke or cytokine storm or coagulapathy or any number of things that are DIRECTLY related to the presence of a covid infection, a direct result of it. If a patient has COPD and has covid disease (not an incidental finding) and dies a lung death, that patient died of covid. Absent covid the patient would be alive, with his COPD. the COPD didn't help, but it should be listed as a covid death.
Covid could conceivably be a co-morbidity...example, a patient has a heart attack and dies a cardiac death. A zealous intern in the ER was testing all comers for covid, even though the patient had a classic myocardial infection and no symptoms whatsoever of covid. Pt dies from arrest and later test comes back positive. Some beard stroking would ensue here wondering if covid played a role in the MI and death, but likely the cause of death would be Cardiac arrest, Coronary artery disease, and covid would be listed as a co-morbidity.
But agree there is room for discussion what should be included and excluded. I personally, from what I have seen and heard from colleagues think the US is getting good numbers.
Bottom line is: Don't get covid

Not intending to diminish a loss, but when “fit” and “healthy” people die from this disease, I’d like to know the case history.
<<
right, agree, but 10% have no comorbities and may be fit and healthy, and if it happens to you it's 100%. I am fit and healthy. I know I can die. Timing is everything.
and finally, things change so quickly on this thing that truth has a half life of about 18 hours, so everything I said could be wrong and I reserve the right to change my mind
 
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