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wash your hands with soap and water, avoid people, and forget the illuminatti.
bergman is a chiropractor who seems to prefer sensationalism and conspiracy theory to the germ theory of disease. Polish your tin foil helmets so we can know when you're coming.
Half Truths and Quackery! Unite!
 

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I don’t want to stir the pot, don’t want to offend, don’t want to talk politics, and certainly don’t want to exchange opinions – you know what they say about opinions – but I would like us all to have the same number of riding buddies this time next year.

On Friday, we had 36 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana. This morning, Tuesday, we have 171.

How Covid-19 is affecting the world: Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

The most thoughtful / apolitical interview I’ve heard yet from a respected world authority :

Interested in maths & exponential growth of epidemics:

The question we should be asking isn’t “is this real?”; we should be asking “do I want to be responsible for someone’s death because of what I chose to do?”

Difficult but survivable times, given a few simple precautions - and preferably without the need for tin foil hats.
 

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The mayor of San Francisco has ordered a "shelter in place" type of thing. Only essential trips. So I filled up the KTM 690 and went up the coast, enjoying the occasional blast pass of clueless Marinoids and Spandexed Peddlers.

Both of my favorite bakeries closed... it's like riding after Armageddon, almost.
 

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I thought this was an interesting article, taken down from its original site like most of the links above but still available here: http://archive.is/dqVWJ

This strikes me as a reasonable analysis of data to date, laying out the more serious concerns and putting into context the possibly less serious ones.

Regular hygiene and social distancing are good practices for everyone, and additional precautions are advisable for older people or those with underlying health conditions.

One conclusion is many people are as concerned about government overreach, martial law, economic shutdown, wealth destruction, staple shortages, civil unrest and human rights forfeiture as they are about the virus.

I cherish my friends and value our Forum members so like Jack above I don't want to stir the pot, talk politics (kiss of death for friendships), spread disinformation or harm anyone - I just think everyone should keep their eyes and minds open to the possibility that things may not always be what they seem.

Definitely Off-Topic and as carefully worded as I can manage! ;)

Cheers, Dave
 

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Good advice above from dbyker. From a medical insider, and just my observations from years of practice...

IN the beginning, say January, mid January, China was still on information lockdown and "discouraging" doctors and scientists from talking about or reporting what was going on in Wuhan, in fact, punishing them. The Chinese government did not want China to be associated with this disease, even though China was its origin.
The first patient in the US was Jan 21. The travel bans from China were instituted at the end of January, with much criticism from various sources--racism, xenophobia, etc.
Why a travel ban? Well, the simple answer is that US gov't, Trump included, was afraid of human to human spread. But, as late as Feb 1--ie, AFTER the US's travel ban, the WHO was still saying that they didn't think human to human was an issue, leading to more criticism of the US gov's response to prevent human to human transfer. More claims of racism and xenophobia continued. (WHO has been political and almost worthless in this, just my opinion)
Early on almost all of the nurses and docs I work with, as well as other healthcare pros in my immediate family, 2 MDs and an ER nurse were saying, "what's the big deal? The flu is more dangerous; it's like a cold and then you get better." And we were keeping up with it. At that time Europe was BARELY on the radar, and info from China was still very lacking on a seemingly intentional basis. The president comes on, then, and says much the same--he says that the flu is more dangerous and this too will pass-- with emphasis on personal hygiene and self quarantine (they didn't call it that) if you were sick, IOW Don't Spread It. The unstated wording was "assume you may have it."
In the background, government agencies were getting updates of the seriousness of the situation, which was unfolding before them daily and hourly, as information on the super infectious nature of the virus SLOWLY came out. Many have criticized Trump for his seeming disregard of the seriousness of the disease, however the behind the scenes action and the involvement of Anthony Fauci and his team clearly speaks otherwise. They are the TOPS in the world of infectious disease. Jerome Adams is a practicing anesthesiologist and knows the clinical implications of such a disease. Anesthesiologists and Nurse Anesthetists are on the front lines and are usually the people that intubate. They put their face right in front of a patient's, sometimes coughing, airway. That's dangerous. That is their job. Jerome Adams knows that, lives that and always has in his professional career. IOW, I feel, despite any criticism of Trumps words, his actions and his team were spot on and timely based on the knowledge at hand. Hindsight is 20/20 usually, Sometimes it's 50/50. And I do not trust any news anchor or politician to know better.

We, in healthcare, are not fixed into unchanging opinions--like politicians are, but can change our impressions on a dime and that happened, concern was very evident among all and that changed how we behaved with patients in so far as physical contact. This is called "barrier protection" and is a hallmark of patient care. However, we knew our supplies were finite, we were becoming better informed on the "supply chain," now very concerned that many previous US administrations allowed vital products, including antibiotics to be made outside of the US. This was part of Trump's platform, to bring manufacturing BACK to the US---not just cars and TVs, but pharmaceuticals also. We were very behind thanks to Adminitration decisions probably going back as far as Ronald Reagan...It "seemed" like a good idea at the time, but Trump recognized the unintended consequences of that.

Many have criticized the "lack of testing kits." A few points...this is a "novel" virus, meaning it is "new."
How do you have testing kits for something that isn't a "thing?" Do we have testing kits for the next "novel" virus out there? Of course not, how could we?
And the reagents were often Made In China.
As with the HIV crisis, as with Bird Flu, Swine flu, Legionnaire's Disease, etc. healthcare workers tested of course, but we behaved, and this was by intent and policy, we behaved as if everybody had the disease...And that is what's happening now. Nurses and doctors and techs etc assume that anyone they care for has Covid-19. Simple as that. Joe or Mary comes in to the ER, Everyone presumes they have the disease.
Ok, but where does that "assumption" lead?

Social distancing in an ER and hospital is pretty hard to achieve, so we use PPE (personal protection equipment), like masks and gowns. We know there is a finite supply.
Weeks ago in the OR where I work we were advised to wear one surgical mask all day because supplies were dwindling and "masks were backordered" A busy clinician might go through 10,15 or more masks a day---as MANDATED by the JCAHO, the accrediting agency for hospitals (and that's another story for another time). I asked how does wearing a mask all day square with JCAH? ...crickets. Aside: where is JCAH in all of this? Answer, i really don't want to know.

Sorry, i digressed a bit, but only a bit. The question that needs to be answered by all the politicians and to a lesser extent the hospitals is how did we get here? We perform reactively as well as proactively, but mostly reactively to the human condition. Doctors, nurses, techs are on the front lines. we are running out of ammunition and some lieutenant in supply (away from the front lines) is telling us to conserve and work smarter. And these people are NOT medical, they are BAs in business, or BSs in statistics, or MSs in accounting, etc. People who don't know an anus from a garden cavity when it comes to actually taking care of the sick.
When Reagan started with COBRA and TEFRA back in the 80s a whole new branch of "medicine" arose...middle management, utilization and review, therapeutics committees, "skirt nurses" ( the ones who did not wear scrubs and carried filofaxes, now iPads). Healthacre costs have continued to rise, yet that money is not going to doctors and nurses. It is used to pay for all those people who tell us how to do our jobs, so the hospitals can maximize reimbursements from the gov and insurance companies who typically pay about 10 cents on the billed dollar.
Aside#2: We are shocked by $5 aspirin and the $50,000 gallbladder surgery, but that is the game played to actually get reimbursed 10% that amount. IOW the THIS IS NOT A BILL should never be quoted or used for anything except the insurance company propaganda that it is.

Again, I digress...but one of the MAJOR ways middle management has held down costs is in the supplies hospitals have on hand. Starting in the late 80s and carrying on in the 90s when Deming and his Value arguments ruled corporate thinking, esp in hospitals, we were told we didn't need the staffing we were asking for (all the while the bureaucracy was increasing in numbers); we didn't need those supplies were were asking for "to do our jobs safely." We didn't need to replace our aging equipment. We needed to "work smarter," and they were there to tell us how to work smarter, and if we didn't like it we could look elsewhere for jobs, because "we are all in this together." Of course it was recognized as BS at the time, but only limited action could be taken.

True story, first hand known. From 1996-2000, I was chief of anesthesia in a major hospital here. The director of the Operating Rooms, a real Deming fan, was not a nurse, but an industrial engineer--right you heard that right, NOT a nurse, never worked in an OR before. The Hospital administration was balls in on efficiency and cost savings, par values, charging by exclusion, worked hours not in staffing pattern, all that accounting gobbly-gook. The "director" was all-in and totally ignorant on our equipment and really what we actually did. He, literally, compared what we did to GM making windshields, assembly line...And that affected how we practiced...certain drugs were taken off the formulary, we were mandated to use gloves, but they refused to deliver gloves to the OR...we had to seek them out in the basement of the hospital. As chief it drove me crazy and my staff looked at me to rectify that, but I was powerless.

One day a nurse went to the industrial engineer director and said we had to get some "new laryngoscope blades." A layrngoscope is an L shaped medical device used to intubate patients. There is a handle, containing batteries, and a "blade" that is metal, thin and flat( and most certainly NOT SHARP) and is inserted into the patient's mouth down to the voice box (the larynx) to visualize where we are putting the tube. There is a light at the distal end of it to see where we are going. Anyway, the "director" was so ignorant that he actually asked "Why do you need new ones, can you just re-sharpen the old ones?" The arrogance combined with such ignorance of critical equipment is appalling. Yet that is where healthcare is, it is being run by "bean counters" playing the reimbursemnt game with the gov and insurance companies to stay in the business.
It should not be surprising that ER nurses are being told to wear the same masks day after day because Bill in CMS (central material supply) has been told by his VP of Building Services Jenny to conservatively had out masks because there are only so many to go around, while they both attend meeting after meeting and too often tune out what the people who actually do the work request. "oh, they always say they need more staff, and more of this or that." These are chickens coming home to roost.

THAT IS WHAT HAS LED TO THIS SHORT SUPPLY OF VITAL EQUIPMENT, viz, the middle management culture, and the government and insurance companies limiting reimbursments and the Hospital administrators playing the game. And corporate healthcare and manufacturers outsourcing the manufacture to China, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.

GM and TESLA has offered to "make ventilators," yeah right...how hard can that be, right? And Chuck Todd is going to ask why haven't they been delivered yet as "Trump struggles and fails," right?

Make the damn equipment here. Pay for it. Have adequate staff. Have adequate supplies on hand determined NOT by Gary, the CEO, or Beverly the DON, or Frank the VP of purchasing, or Todd the director of the OR. Listen instead to Dr Jones, the intensivist, or Sarah, the ICU nurse, and Teri the head nurse in ER---they are the people who know, yet whose ideas are too often, have been treated with disdain by hospital adminstrators doing the bidding of the insurance companies, public and private.

Ok, I don't feel better after the rant, but I have been seeing this happen for many years. I knew that one day a reckoning would come. This is not Trump's fault as many have portrayed, but the result of government and corporate interests, not involved in patient care, and have been brewing for decades. Complaints about healthcare have been around for years, decades, but patients like their doctor and their nurse, what does that tell you? That the complaints are better placed somewhere else?

Healthcare is expensive and presents a different playing field with every patient that walks or is rolled through the doors. Variability is in its nature and one has NEVER seen it all.
We all know what the "world's oldest profession" is, but it is not as well know what the world's second oldest profession is....hospital administrator

Wash your hands, stay away from all people especially sick people. Covid-19 does not respect "good health," or wealth or social standing.
If you are not watching those daily pressers, you should. There's lots of good information that is current. If you listen to that you can eliminate network news from your diet.
 

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Good health to all Forum friends who are now in lock down and cannot ride out, such is the seriousness of the pandemic across Europe, Australasia, America's, Asia Pacific and r.o.w. The UK hasn't gone in lock down, yet, but it's only days away if folk do not abide by social distancing advice. The figures show London is already badly hit and possible 2-3 weeks behind the tragic situation in Italy and rest of UK is possibly 2-3 weeks behind London. Yet we still see crowds of folk gathering over the weekend with potential of exponentialy multiplying the spread.
Us oldies/seniors must look out for ourselves and look out for family as the future.
The bike is locked away for present giving the opportunity for a good clean and service after winter rides. My next group rides out is deferred, until when nobody knows, Autumn?

Keep safe and stay well.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
I’m hoping to get my RS back from the shop before any real “lockdown” happens so I can tinker with it at home.
 

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Thank you Good Doctor for chiming in and sharing your insight as I hoped you would! Very interesting and good to know.

The opposing party and mainstream media have not been very supportive of President Trump's efforts over the past three years.

Cheers, Dave
 

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Tried my very best to maintain my social distancing (that will get into the dictionary soon) of 6 feet by taking the bike out for a run in the Brecon beacons on Monday before the lockdown which applies to except people in London who use the tube, muppets.
 

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Shame not all NHS workers commuting to work have bikes so they can practice 2m filtering.
The heroes ; )

Am also signed up for bike duty: GoodSAM

May as well be productive whilst you’re at it, although only likely to be 8km in town and up to 30km out.
 

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I note some big long posts and 20-minute videos.

I just don’t have time to read and watch everything everybody posts on the interweb.

But I would say of the stuff I have seen, these two videos, both just over 2 minutes long are very good indeed, and worth paying attention too.

Keep a low-profile folks. Only go to the shops when you have to. Practise social distancing. And be on the look out for folks or organisations who may need a little help.


'Stay at home' - Doctors and nurses appeal to UK

Stay safe dudes.
 
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