If inspection and spline lubrication are only a maintenance recommendation, rather than a mandatory one, BMW could hardly argue that they won’t replace a shaft at the specified interval if they are not done. The owner is simply assuming more risk of a roadside failure. Presumably BMW has analysed the failure mode such that a shaft is unlikely to fail within 20,000 km of passing an inspection. If you forego the scheduled maintenance, then it makes sense that you would forego any claim for consequential damage. But I can’t see any reason why BMW would not come to the party with a new shaft.
There’s no indication by BMW that a seized spline/shaft will cause damage to the Cardan joints, although it could be argued that if it seized such that the parallelogram of the Paralever is not maintained within tolerance, some additional stress could be placed on the joints (or the gearbox output shaft bearing?). I’ve never seen any analysis of this though, and with shaft lubrication being only a recommendation, BMW doesn’t seem to be concerned about it contributing materially to failure. If you forego the lubrication recommendation, then you presumably limit any support for remediation of a seized shaft, although it’s not very obvious how bikes in service before the renewed maintenance schedule would be treated.
As has been documented on the forum a number of times, shaft testing is a vibration analysis to detect what’s going on in the bearings, behind the grease seals. The rear wheel is removed, a sensor attached to the rear drive, and the hub spun up to within a specified rpm range using an approved cordless drill. A computer connected to the sensor has vibration analysis software that gives either a big green tick or big red cross - pass or fail.
I expect this new maintenance/replacement schedule/program has been a long time in development within BMW. The original shaft has been superseded and its replacement is a third/quarter of the original cost (comparable with a good chain/sprocket set for a large bike), so I expect BMW has plenty of shafts on hand. My local dealer always keeps one in stock. The cost of two inspections is in the same ball park as a chain/sprocket set too, so cost wise, you’re no worse off than if you owned a chain driven ‘equivalent’, especially if you paid a dealer to fit the chain and sprockets.
Having experienced a shaft failure before this all came into effect, albeit having had the shaft replaced free of charge, the program has given me new confidence in owning a Boxer. So I’m buoyed by it rather than peeved.
The R1300GS shaft is scheduled for replacement at 80,000 km, although I haven’t had any firm advice on whether this is at the expense of the owner or otherwise. EDIT: The 1300's shaft replacement will be at the owner's expene. We get the free ride because replacament wasn't specified in the maintenance schedule when we bought our bikes.